Boring Bank of Canada Announcement Foretells Wild New Things In World Economy

by Buzz Grant

 

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) issued a letter this morning to all federally regulated financial institutions (FRFI). The letter expresses concern about the rising levels of household debt in Canada and serves to remind FRFIs of their obligations under Guidelines B-20 and B-21 to assess and underwrite mortgage loans and mortgage insurance in a prudent manner.

The letter states:

Given the current economic environment in Canada, there with record levels of household indebtedness and growing risks and vulnerabilities in some housing markets, OSFI’s supervisory scrutiny in the area of mortgage underwriting will continue. Moving forward, OSFI will place an even greater emphasis on confirming that financial institutions conduct prudent mortgage underwriting, and that their internal controls and risk management practices are sound and take into account market developments.

OSFI has identified the following five specific areas that it expects lenders to consider diligently during their underwriting process:

Income Verification
Due diligence processes for lenders must be in place.  Inadequate income verification can adversely affect the assessment of credit risk, anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing (AML/CTF) compliance, capital requirements and mortgage insurability. More stringent due diligence for incomes outside of Canada should be applied, and there should not be any reliance on collateral values as a replacement for income validation.

Non-Conforming Loans
OSFI warns that the 65% loan-to-value threshold should not be considered a demarcation point below which, sound underwriting practices and borrower due diligence do not apply; a borrower’s character and capacity to service the loan should always take precedence over the value of collateral when underwriting mortgage loans or insurance.

Debt Service Ratios
Incomes should be conservatively calculated and appropriately questioned. In particular, rental incomes from the underlying property should be critically examined. OSFI also suggests that relying on current posted five-year interest rates to test a borrower’s ability to service its obligations does not represent an adequate stress test in a rising interest rate environment.

Appraisals and LTV Calculation
OSFI suggests that rapid house price increases create more uncertainty about the reliability of property appraisals. Institutions should use appraisal values and approaches that provide for a conservative LTV calculation, and not assume that housing prices will remain stable or continue to rise.

Risk Appetite and Portfolio Management
OSFI’s supervisory work indicates that the risk profile of newer mortgage loans is generally on the rise. OSFI reminds mortgage lenders and mortgage insurers to revisit their Residential Mortgage Underwriting Policy and Residential Mortgage Insurance Underwriting Plan regularly to ensure a stringent alignment between their stated risk appetite and their actual mortgage/mortgage insurance underwriting and risk management practices.

OSFI’s letter further states that they are working on various capital policy initiatives to strengthen the measurement of capital held by the major banks and mortgage insurers to ensure their ability to weather losses from residential mortgage defaults. New measures are targeted for implementation in November 2016 and January 2017 respectively.  Risk Sensitive Floors, Capital Requirements for Mortgage Insurers, and BCBS Revisions to the Standardized Approach for Credit Risk are each included in these reviews.
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) issued a letter this morning to all federally regulated financial institutions (FRFI). The letter expresses concern about the rising levels of household debt in Canada and serves to remind FRFIs of their obligations under Guidelines B-20 and B-21 to assess and underwrite mortgage loans and mortgage insurance in a prudent manner.

The letter states:

Given the current economic environment in Canada, viagra buy with record levels of household indebtedness and growing risks and vulnerabilities in some housing markets, OSFI’s supervisory scrutiny in the area of mortgage underwriting will continue. Moving forward, OSFI will place an even greater emphasis on confirming that financial institutions conduct prudent mortgage underwriting, and that their internal controls and risk management practices are sound and take into account market developments.

OSFI has identified the following five specific areas that it expects lenders to consider diligently during their underwriting process:

Income Verification
Due diligence processes for lenders must be in place.  Inadequate income verification can adversely affect the assessment of credit risk, anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing (AML/CTF) compliance, capital requirements and mortgage insurability. More stringent due diligence for incomes outside of Canada should be applied, and there should not be any reliance on collateral values as a replacement for income validation.

Non-Conforming Loans
OSFI warns that the 65% loan-to-value threshold should not be considered a demarcation point below which, sound underwriting practices and borrower due diligence do not apply; a borrower’s character and capacity to service the loan should always take precedence over the value of collateral when underwriting mortgage loans or insurance.

Debt Service Ratios
Incomes should be conservatively calculated and appropriately questioned. In particular, rental incomes from the underlying property should be critically examined. OSFI also suggests that relying on current posted five-year interest rates to test a borrower’s ability to service its obligations does not represent an adequate stress test in a rising interest rate environment.

Appraisals and LTV Calculation
OSFI suggests that rapid house price increases create more uncertainty about the reliability of property appraisals. Institutions should use appraisal values and approaches that provide for a conservative LTV calculation, and not assume that housing prices will remain stable or continue to rise.

Risk Appetite and Portfolio Management
OSFI’s supervisory work indicates that the risk profile of newer mortgage loans is generally on the rise. OSFI reminds mortgage lenders and mortgage insurers to revisit their Residential Mortgage Underwriting Policy and Residential Mortgage Insurance Underwriting Plan regularly to ensure a stringent alignment between their stated risk appetite and their actual mortgage/mortgage insurance underwriting and risk management practices.

OSFI’s letter further states that they are working on various capital policy initiatives to strengthen the measurement of capital held by the major banks and mortgage insurers to ensure their ability to weather losses from residential mortgage defaults. New measures are targeted for implementation in November 2016 and January 2017 respectively.  Risk Sensitive Floors, Capital Requirements for Mortgage Insurers, and BCBS Revisions to the Standardized Approach for Credit Risk are each included in these reviews.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) today announced that it will be doing nothing with their key overnight lending rate, medications thus leaving the Prime lending rate at major FI’s the same. The Prime lending rate will remain at 2.7% which is the base rate for virtually all variable/floating or adjustable rate lending in Canada.

WIld new things are happening in the world economy:

  • Oil prices remain lower
  • Interest rates have turned negative in Europe & Japan
  • There is a chronic shortage of demand for goods and services and, treatment advanced economies tend to save more as their populations age
  • Investment into the means of production is meager – the new economy is asset-lite. Companies such as SkipTheDishes, Airbnb and Lyft prosper by using assets that already exist.
  • Software which is an intangible and does not require the construction of machinery & factories, accounts for larger share of the economy.

Interest rates like any price is a function of supply and demand. Rates have fallen and remain low because the demand for loans is weak and the supply of money (for loans) is strong.

There is an ever growing belief by experts and economists that the only way out of our stagnant world economy is for fiscal stimulus rather than monetary stimulus, that is: government spending versus central bank manipulation.

For the time being interest rates and the possibility of them moving, up or down, in Canada is a dead issue. Canada, of all healthy countries, is last to the table with business investment (a function of the tax environment). Our dollar is weak but we still have a problem competing with other countries for exports because our productivity (output per labor hour) is uncompetitive.

Copyright Mortgage Logic 2016